Zeta Global Grows Fast but Dilution Lowers Fair Value
Feb 27, 2025
Zeta Global had a strong year, with revenue up 38%, large customer count rising 15%, and net revenue retention at 114%. Q4 was its best quarter yet, with nearly 50% sales growth. As a leader in AI-driven marketing, Zeta projects 20%+ annual growth, targeting $2 billion in revenue by 2028. However, new details impact fair value: management now expects a 16% free cash flow margin—below my 20% target—and has issued nearly 30 million shares for acquisitions and performance stock units, significantly diluting public shareholders. Accounting for these factors, our fair value drops to $18, aligning with its current trading price.
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Watch List
| APPF | 4.30% |
| CMG | 40.33% |
| PSTG | -1.39% |
| WDAY | -5.41% |
| VEEV | 19.23% |
| INTU | 20.20% |
| RDDT | 16.57% |
| NTNX | 27.22% |
| CRWD | 95.83% |
| SE | 32.72% |
| SNOW | 13.92% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Buy List
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| HRMY | -59.63% |
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| ADBE | -41.68% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Hold List
| ASML | -23.91% |
| VTEX | -13.76% |
| ODD | -6.91% |
| ASR | -24.09% |
| CELH | 39.84% |
| TOST | 18.60% |
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| HIMS | -5.43% |
| PAYC | -18.56% |
| MNDY | 21.64% |
| GLBE | -21.93% |
| ZS | 38.75% |
| V | -4.82% |
| ADSK | 1.57% |
| NOW | 15.34% |
| MELI | -19.68% |
| FTNT | 1.73% |
| TEAM | 0.14% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates