Sep 29, 2023
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc
CMG
Statistics
| $50.52 | Share Price |
| $36.00 | Fair Value |
| 40.33% | Price vs Fair Value |
| $68.8 B | Market Cap |
| 14.4% | 3yr Avg Revenue Growth |
| 13.3% | Projected Sales Growth Next Year |
| 15.5% | Free Cash Flow ROIC |
 | Rising Revenues |
| Recurring Revenues |
 | Brand Moat |
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Fair Value Calculation Assumptions
Using a discounted free cash flow model with the following assumptions, the Fair Value estimate for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc (CMG) is $36.00.
| 14.0% | Free Cash Flow Margin |
| 11.0% | Discount Rate / Required Rate of Return |
| 10.5% | Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 1-5) |
| -1.0% | Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 1-5) |
| 7.8% | Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 6-10) |
| -1.0% | Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 6-10) |
| 6.0% | Terminal Growth Rate |
| $35.61 | Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flows |
| $0.93 | Net "Excess" Cash/Debt Per Share |
| $36.00 | Fair Value Estimate (rounded) |
Last updated Apr 24, 2025
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Watch List
| APPF | 2.89% |
| CMG | 40.69% |
| VEEV | 18.18% |
| INTU | 19.38% |
| WDAY | -6.03% |
| PSTG | -0.91% |
| RDDT | 22.14% |
| NTNX | 26.89% |
| CRWD | 96.80% |
| SE | 32.59% |
| SNOW | 14.54% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Buy List
| PINS | -35.90% |
| SEMR | -33.42% |
| TSM | -41.05% |
| ZETA | -25.28% |
| GOOG | -49.98% |
| NYAX | -29.85% |
| MSFT | -28.23% |
| ODD | -25.19% |
| ASR | -25.06% |
| FLYW | -40.00% |
| HRMY | -59.67% |
| YOU | -38.27% |
| ABNB | -29.50% |
| ADBE | -42.30% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Hold List
| ASML | -24.13% |
| VTEX | -13.92% |
| CELH | 41.84% |
| TOST | 20.70% |
| CPNG | -11.13% |
| HIMS | 0.11% |
| PAYC | -17.78% |
| MNDY | 19.61% |
| GLBE | -22.17% |
| ZS | 37.33% |
| V | -5.40% |
| ADSK | 1.07% |
| NOW | 13.87% |
| MELI | -21.40% |
| FTNT | 2.17% |
| TEAM | 0.21% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates