Autodesk, Inc

ADSK
ADSK logo

Statistics

$292.16Share Price
$276.00 Fair Value green dot
5.86% Price vs Fair Value green dot
$63.1 BMarket Cap
11.8%3yr Avg Revenue Growth
12.5%Projected Sales Growth Next Year
24.1%Free Cash Flow ROIC
check markRising Revenues
check markRecurring Revenues
plus signNetwork Effect Moat
plus signHigh Switching Costs Moat

Stock Research and Updates

Research Article

Autodesk: Industry Standard For Over 30 Years

Updates

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Business Overview / Sources of Revenue

Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADSK) is a global leader in software for architecture, engineering, construction, manufacturing, and media and entertainment industries. Its flagship products include AutoCAD, Revit, Fusion 360, Maya, and 3ds Max, which help professionals design, visualize, and simulate projects from buildings to movies[4][3][5]. Autodesk earns most of its revenue from software subscriptions and cloud-based services, sold directly, through resellers, and online[5]. Revenue is primarily generated from the architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) sector, with significant contributions from manufacturing and media/entertainment, although specific percentage breakdowns are not provided in the search results[5][3][4].


Revenue Growth Potential and Recurrence

Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) has an exceptionally high share of recurring revenue, with 97 percent of its total revenue being recurring as of fiscal 2025[1][5]. This demonstrates strong revenue stability and predictability for the company.

Regarding growth potential, Autodesk has shown robust performance recently with 12 percent revenue growth in Q4 fiscal 2025 to $1.64 billion[1][5] and 15 percent growth (16 percent on constant currency) in Q1 fiscal 2026 to $1.6 billion[3]. The company is strategically positioning itself for continued growth by initiating an optimization phase of its sales and marketing plan and reallocating internal resources to accelerate strategic priorities[1].

While specific long-term growth projections aren't provided in the search results, Autodesk's consistent double-digit revenue growth, high recurring revenue percentage, and strategic resource allocation suggest potential for sustained growth in the 10-15% range annually over the next 5+ years.


Economic Moat Factors

Autodesk possesses a wide economic moat primarily built on switching costs and network effects[1][3]. The company's CAD solutions demonstrate significant switching costs as users become proficient with their software, making transitions to competing products costly and time-consuming. This is complemented by network effects where increased adoption enhances the value for all users.

Autodesk's subscription-based model further strengthens its competitive position, with 97% recurring revenue acting as a buffer against market volatility[5]. Despite economic uncertainties, customers continue to commit long-term, as evidenced by strong retention rates and RPO growth[5].

While Autodesk maintains this formidable moat, some analysts believe the company isn't fully capitalizing on its competitive advantages, potentially "leaving substantial profit on the table" regarding pricing and spending efficiency[2]. Nevertheless, the company's fundamental moat remains sturdy, supported by strategic AI-driven innovations that continue to create upsell opportunities[5].


Leadership

Andrew Anagnost serves as Autodesk's President and CEO, as evidenced by his leadership during recent organizational changes and financial announcements[1][3][4][5]. He is not a founder of the company. While the search results don't specify his tenure length or ownership stake, he has been leading strategic initiatives including workforce reduction of approximately 9% (affecting around 1,350 employees) announced in February 2025[1]. Under his leadership, Autodesk is focusing on transforming its Go-to-Market organization and accelerating investments in AI, platform development, and industry clouds[1][5]. The company reported 15% revenue growth in Q1 fiscal 2026, reaching $1.6 billion[5].


Financial Health

Autodesk (ADSK) demonstrates robust financial health with $6.1 billion in revenue for FY 2025, up 12% year-over-year, and a strong 92% gross margin[1]. The company generated $1.6 billion in free cash flow for FY 2025, a 22% growth from FY 2024's $1.3 billion[2]. For FY 2026, Autodesk targets $2.075-$2.175 billion in free cash flow[2]. The company is actively repurchasing shares, with plans to buy back $1.1-$1.2 billion in FY 2026, representing a 30-40% increase over FY 2025[2]. While specific cash-to-debt ratio isn't provided, its $1.1 billion net profit[1] and increasing operating margins (>2,400 bps since FY 2019)[2] indicate strong financial positioning.

Fair Value Calculation Assumptions

Using a discounted free cash flow model with the following assumptions, the Fair Value estimate for Autodesk, Inc (ADSK) is $276.00.

31.0%Free Cash Flow Margin
9.5%Discount Rate / Required Rate of Return
10.1%Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 1-5)
-0.5%Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 1-5)
6.8%Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 6-10)
-1.0%Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 6-10)
5.0%Terminal Growth Rate
$292.84Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flows
$-17.25Net "Excess" Cash/Debt Per Share
$276.00Fair Value Estimate (rounded)

Recommendation History

Start End Cost Last Return vs. SPY
2023-01-02$186.87$292.1656.34%0.24%

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