Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc

HRMY
HRMY logo

Statistics

$32.97Share Price
$74.00 Fair Value green dot
-55.45% Price vs Fair Value green dot
$1.9 BMarket Cap
32.8%3yr Avg Revenue Growth
18.7%Projected Sales Growth Next Year
28.2%Free Cash Flow ROIC
check markRising Revenues
check markRecurring Revenues
plus signRegulatory Barriers Moat

Stock Research and Updates

Research Article

Harmony Biosciences Is A BUY green dot

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Business Overview / Sources of Revenue

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: HRMY) is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company specializing in the development and commercialization of therapies for patients with rare and other neurological diseases in the United States. Its main revenue source is the sales of WAKIX (pitolisant), a treatment for excessive daytime sleepiness in adults with narcolepsy[3]. WAKIX accounts for the vast majority of the company’s revenues, with reported total revenue of approximately $744.85 million for the trailing twelve months as of March 31, 2025[3]. Although Harmony is developing pitolisant for additional indications, virtually all current revenue is generated from WAKIX sales[3]. The company operates with a gross margin of 78%, highlighting the profitability of its pharmaceutical product business[3].


Revenue Growth Potential and Recurrence

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY) derives a large share of its revenue from WAKIX®, its flagship product for narcolepsy, resulting in significant recurring revenue from ongoing prescriptions[5]. In Q1 2025, WAKIX® alone saw 20% year-over-year growth and company revenues topped $184.7 million[1][4]. Over the past three years, average revenue growth was 32.8%, and sales are projected to grow by 18.7% next year[2]. The company’s robust pipeline—including additional indications and late-stage clinical trials—supports continued expansion. Over the next 5+ years, HRMY’s revenue growth potential remains strong, likely in the mid-to-high teens annually, driven by recurring sales of WAKIX® and possible new product launches or approved indications[1][5]. This recurring revenue model and new growth avenues give HRMY solid long-term revenue expansion prospects.


Economic Moat Factors

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY) possesses a modest economic moat, primarily rooted in its strong intellectual property protection for its lead drug, WAKIX, and its established presence in rare neurological diseases[4][5]. These factors create barriers for generic competitors and support premium pricing. However, the company is heavily reliant on a single product and operates in a niche market, which limits switching costs and network effects—patients and physicians could potentially switch to alternative therapies if available[2][5]. Brand power is developing but not yet dominant outside its core indication. While Harmony’s scale in its therapeutic segment provides some operational efficiencies, it does not confer the broad economies of scale seen in larger pharmaceutical firms[5]. Strategic partnerships and continued R&D investments may strengthen its moat over time, but currently, competitive risks remain moderate with some unique asset protection[4][5].


Leadership

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. is led by President and CEO Jeffrey M. Dayno, M.D., a neurologist and pharmaceutical industry leader who has been with the company since its inception, though he is not listed as a founder[1]. Dr. Dayno has overseen Harmony’s growth, including major acquisitions in 2023 and 2024, and has extensive experience in neurology and drug development[1]. His specific ownership stake is not provided in the available sources. The senior leadership team features professionals with deep pharma and biotech backgrounds, supporting the company’s focus on rare neurological diseases[1][3].


Financial Health

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY) has a strong balance sheet, with $507 million in cash and short-term investments versus $176 million in total debt, resulting in a healthy cash-to-debt ratio and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 24.4%[5]. The company generates significant free cash flow, supported by an EBIT of $195 million and robust interest coverage[5]. There is no specific recent data on share repurchases or dilution in the available results, but balance sheet indicators suggest prudent capital management[5].

Fair Value Calculation Assumptions

Using a discounted free cash flow model with the following assumptions, the Fair Value estimate for Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc (HRMY) is $74.00.

29.0%Free Cash Flow Margin
13.5%Discount Rate / Required Rate of Return
14.0%Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 1-5)
2.4%Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 1-5)
8.8%Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 6-10)
1.4%Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 6-10)
6.0%Terminal Growth Rate
$67.40Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flows
$6.82Net "Excess" Cash/Debt Per Share
$74.00Fair Value Estimate (rounded)

Recommendation History

Start End Cost Last Return vs. SPY
2023-09-25$36.28$32.97-9.12%-47.83%

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Buy List

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