May 6, 2025
SPS Commerce, Inc
SPSC
Statistics
| $141.86 | Share Price |
| $120.00 | Fair Value  |
| 18.22% | Price vs Fair Value |
| $5.4 B | Market Cap |
| 18.3% | 3yr Avg Revenue Growth |
| 16.2% | Projected Sales Growth Next Year |
| 15.7% | Free Cash Flow ROIC |
 | Rising Revenues |
| Recurring Revenues |
 | Brand Moat |
| Network Effect Moat |
| High Switching Costs Moat |
Stock Research and Updates
Research Article
SPS Commerce: Connecting the Retail Supply Web
Fair Value Calculation Assumptions
Using a discounted free cash flow model with the following assumptions, the Fair Value estimate for SPS Commerce, Inc (SPSC) is $120.00.
| 21.5% | Free Cash Flow Margin |
| 10.5% | Discount Rate / Required Rate of Return |
| 12.7% | Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 1-5) |
| 0.8% | Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 1-5) |
| 7.8% | Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 6-10) |
| 0.1% | Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 6-10) |
| 6.0% | Terminal Growth Rate |
| $118.01 | Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flows |
| $2.49 | Net "Excess" Cash/Debt Per Share |
| $120.00 | Fair Value Estimate (rounded) |
Last updated May 6, 2025
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Watch List
| SPSC | 18.22% |
| RDDT | 2.46% |
| APPF | 8.34% |
| CMG | 43.44% |
| VEEV | 21.59% |
| PSTG | 3.57% |
| INTU | 22.82% |
| WDAY | -3.25% |
| NTNX | 36.48% |
| CRWD | 92.93% |
| SE | 41.12% |
| SNOW | 21.83% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Buy List
| PINS | -33.32% |
| SEMR | -34.06% |
| TSM | -37.44% |
| ZETA | -34.00% |
| GOOG | -52.84% |
| NYAX | -29.47% |
| HRMY | -54.81% |
| YOU | -35.90% |
| ABNB | -30.83% |
| ADBE | -40.13% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Hold List
| ASML | -20.23% |
| VTEX | -6.40% |
| MSFT | -21.35% |
| ODD | 1.88% |
| ASR | -20.36% |
| FLYW | -14.51% |
| CELH | 15.45% |
| TOST | 18.53% |
| CPNG | 0.38% |
| HIMS | 32.53% |
| PAYC | -13.05% |
| MNDY | 19.60% |
| GLBE | -18.89% |
| ZS | 43.28% |
| V | -3.62% |
| ADSK | 4.95% |
| NOW | 18.75% |
| MELI | -22.05% |
| FTNT | 5.66% |
| TEAM | -11.33% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates