AppFolio, Inc

Statistics
$225.57 | Share Price |
$198.00 | Fair Value |
13.92% | Price vs Fair Value |
$8.3 B | Market Cap |
30.3% | 3yr Avg Revenue Growth |
17.6% | Projected Sales Growth Next Year |
38.0% | Free Cash Flow ROIC |
Rising Revenues | |
Recurring Revenues | |
High Switching Costs Moat |
Stock Research and Updates
Research Article
GreenDotBot AI Analysis
Business Overview / Sources of Revenue
AppFolio, Inc. (APPF) provides cloud-based business management software primarily for the real estate industry, focusing on property management. Its core product, AppFolio Property Manager, offers tools for managing residential, commercial, community association, and student housing properties, helping automate leasing, accounting, and operations[3][4].
AppFolio generates nearly all its revenue through a software-as-a-service (SaaS) model, which includes recurring monthly subscription fees based on the number of units managed and predictable value-added service fees arising from tenant transactions (e.g., payments, screening)[5]. This results in close to 100% recurring, highly reliable revenue[5]. While the company historically also served the legal practice management segment, its current business is overwhelmingly oriented toward property management software[3][4].
As of 2024, AppFolio's revenue exceeded $800 million, holding less than 3% market share in a fast-growing sector[5]. Detailed revenue percentage breakdowns by product are not disclosed in the search results.
Revenue Growth Potential and Recurrence
AppFolio, Inc. (APPF) does have a large share of recurring revenue, as indicated by the "Recurring Revenues" designation in its business profile[4]. This provides stability to the company's financial performance.
Regarding growth potential, AppFolio demonstrated strong revenue growth of 28% year-over-year in fiscal 2024, reaching $794 million[1][3]. For fiscal 2025, the company projects revenue between $920-940 million, representing approximately 17.6% growth[1][3][4].
Looking at longer-term projections, analysts estimate an average annual revenue growth of 15.2% for the first five years, followed by 9.8% for years 6-10[4]. This robust growth trajectory is supported by AppFolio's continued investments in AI and resident experience technologies[3].
The company has also shown impressive financial health with a free cash flow ROIC of 38.0%[4], and non-GAAP operating margins expected to remain strong at 24.5% to 26.5% for fiscal year 2025[1][2].
Economic Moat Factors
AppFolio, Inc. (APPF) possesses a narrow economic moat primarily supported by two key advantages. First, the company benefits from high switching costs as users face significant inconvenience and expense when migrating to different platforms due to deep operational integration and learning curves associated with new software[1]. Second, AppFolio enjoys network effects as its property management software becomes more valuable with increased adoption, enhancing data and service quality across its user base[1].
While these competitive advantages provide some protection against competitors, they aren't strong enough to create insurmountable barriers[1]. AppFolio's growing market presence (less than 3% of the current $27 billion property management software market)[5] indicates room for expansion, particularly with initiatives like Property Manager Max targeting the large property management segment[5]. The company's strong revenue growth (30% three-year CAGR)[5] and high ROE (49.12%)[4] demonstrate effective leverage of its competitive positioning, though not enough to establish a wide economic moat.
Leadership
AppFolio, Inc.’s CEO is Shane Trigg, who has served in the role since March 2023. He is not a founder but was previously General Manager of Real Estate at the company. Trigg’s tenure as CEO is just over two years, and while his total compensation is about $5 million, there are no current details available regarding his personal ownership stake. The broader management team is relatively new, with an average tenure of 1.3 years, reflecting recent changes in leadership[5][1].
Financial Health
AppFolio, Inc. (APPF) demonstrates excellent financial health with a debt-free balance sheet and $210.8 million in cash[5]. The company's short-term assets ($272.0M) exceed both short-term liabilities ($58.6M) and long-term liabilities ($44.0M), indicating strong liquidity[5]. AppFolio has significantly improved its financial position by eliminating debt that previously represented a 77.9% debt-to-equity ratio five years ago[5]. The company has transitioned to being a net share repurchaser, with its Board authorizing a substantial $300 million share repurchase program in April 2025, replacing a previous $100 million program that was nearly exhausted[2][3]. AppFolio also boasts an impressive Return on Equity of 49.12%[4].
Last updated Jun 2, 2025
Fair Value Calculation Assumptions
Using a discounted free cash flow model with the following assumptions, the Fair Value estimate for AppFolio, Inc (APPF) is $198.00.
22.0% | Free Cash Flow Margin |
10.5% | Discount Rate / Required Rate of Return |
15.2% | Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 1-5) |
0.0% | Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 1-5) |
9.8% | Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 6-10) |
0.0% | Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 6-10) |
6.0% | Terminal Growth Rate |
$191.73 | Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flows |
$5.74 | Net "Excess" Cash/Debt Per Share |
$198.00 | Fair Value Estimate (rounded) |
Last updated Apr 25, 2025
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