Celsius Growth Slows In Q2
Aug 8, 2024
Celsius reported Q2 sales growth of just over 23%, a far cry from the 100% figures we saw last year and even the 40%+ number in Q1. The energy drink category itself has seen slowing growth as part of general consumer pullback trend being reported in Q2, and Celsius is still working through Pepsi's massive inventory channel stocking in the back half of 2023. Underlying numbers still look healthy, with end retail sales in the U.S. up 37%, and a 1.4% dollar share increase in the category. Clearly my growth expectations had gotten too high on this one, and I'll admit it is a difficult one to pin a model down on. That said, I do believe the market has over-corrected and CELH looks like a good buy at current prices. The fair value gets a major haircut down to $56. I still don't see any substantial red flags from a business perspective, this looks like more of a weakening macro story at present.
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